Has Rafa Lost It?

I've received a few queries over the last couple of months asking if Rafael Nadal has lost his winning touch. Since reaching the Wimbledon final in early July and up until the ATP Tennis Masters Cup in Shanghai, Nadal had not advanced beyond the quarterfinals of any event he played and his losses have not come against the true elite of the game. That's hardly the performance you would expect from the number 2 player in the world. The player himself has offered a couple of possible explanations for his dip in standard post-Wimbledon. The first was that he didn't practice very much after the Wimbledon final, instead choosing to relax and fill his social calendar a bit. Unfortunately, the American hard court season is probably the one that Nadal needs to practice for the most, especially as more and more of the US Open Series events are quickening their courts in an attempt to match the speed of those at Flushing Meadows (by the way, if anyone tells you that the courts at the US Open aren't quick, that person is either lying or doesn't know what he is talking about).

Watching Nadal play on the hard courts over the summer, it was evident that his confidence wasn't high and when that's the case, Rafa tends to go back to his basic game which is essentially defensive and played from yards behind the baseline. On quick hard courts, this strategy becomes self-defeating when facing players who can flatten out their strokes and hit through the court thus neutralizing Nadal's running game. That trend continued into the fall when Rafa faced Thomas Berdych in Madrid and again was undone by a player who was able to take Rafa's high, mid-court replies and flatten them out for huge winners. Nadal had a chance to take the second set against Berdych, but was undone by a moment of poor focus - something that was unimaginable in 2005 and the first half of 2006. Once he was out of the Madrid tournament, Rafa told us that his recent results were due to fatigue, but that he would make every effort to be 100% for Shanghai.

And then Shanghai came around and his first match in group play was against nemesis James Blake. No player on the tour hits through a quick court quite as well as James Blake and from a confidence perspective, Blake was a terrible first match for the Spaniard. Not surprisingly, Blake won in straight sets, yet Nadal had chances and didn't capitalize on them. Once again, it was hard to believe that we were watching the same player as the one from '05 and early '06.

Nadal still managed to make the semifinals of the Masters Cup where he faced the number one player in the world, Roger Federer. Based on the surface and the varying confidence levels of the two players, I fully expected a Federer victory, however I was pleasantly surprised while watching the match live on my laptop. Nadal was playing more aggressively from the baseline than in previous months. He was taking the opportunity to step into the court and hit the ball early rather than waiting on it. It was as if he knew that he had no chance to beat Federer playing his usual style, and like a caged animal, came out and attacked because it was his only option. There were some brilliant points from both players in the match, more from Roger perhaps, and although Nadal lost, Rafa fans should be encouraged by what we saw in Shanghai. Now the question is, can Nadal make an impact at the Aussie Open? In theory, the Rebound Ace surface should help Rafa's heavy topspin game, but there have been rumors that the Australian Open tournament committee is looking to speed up the courts - *sigh*.

So has Rafa lost it? I don't think so and I hope not. I saw some renewed confidence in his semifinal loss to Federer and a willingness to be more aggressive. He needs to do that against more players than just the Mighty Fed, else he'll continue to suffer losses to the likes of Blake and Berdych. Also, his rivalry with Federer is important for the game and I expect that he'll provide a better showing in Australia. If he doesn't, then the clay court season will be very interesting and Roger Federer may become the odds-on favorite to win his first French Open.