The 2007 Championships at Wimbledon are upon us and the major theme of the men's event is Roger Federer's quest for a fifth consecutive title to equal the Open Era mark set by Bjorn Borg. Federer is a huge favorite to capture title number five and seemingly no one stands in his way. The Swiss' dominance on grass is well chronicled, and the lack of a competitive tune-up event shouldn't worry him. There just aren't any men who can play on grass well enough to beat him.
One player who certainly won't be standing in Federer's way is Britain's Andy Murray who had to withdraw from The Championships with a lingering wrist injury. This is a double-blow for the tournament as Murray is not only a top player – he was seeded eighth – but he was also a strong rooting interest for the British public. While Tim Henman is still playing, his days of challenging for the title are in the past. The young Scot was Britain's best hope and with him out of the competition, the local fans will have no home-grown players with title aspirations to cheer for since 1995.
So can anyone trouble the Swiss Master at Wimbledon? The answer is a fairly definitive “no”, but let's take a look at the top eight seeds to see if a challenger lies among them.
James Blake (9)
The 27 year-old American has played at Wimbledon six times with a best result of the third round in 2006. While his game is well suited to fast courts, his grass court results are inconsistent. Blake will be disappointed that he is on Federer's side of the draw rather than second seeded Rafael Nadal. Blake has had his way with Nadal on quick courts and would likely welcome a shot at the Spaniard on the lawns of Wimbledon. Instead, a potential fourth round match with Chilean Fernando Gonzalez looms and then a quarterfinal versus the world's number one. At the very most, the road will end there.
Tomas Berdych (7)
The 2007 Gerry Weber Open champion should bring great confidence into this year' Wimbledon. He went through the field at Halle, Germany without dropping a set. In 2006, he achieved a career best fourth round result at Wimbledon and has a favorable draw this time around. However, don't be surprised to see him in a tricky match-up with hard serving Aussie Wayne Arthurs in the fourth round. If he can survive that, a possible quarterfinal date with Rafael Nadal awaits. The young Czech has the talent, and perhaps more importantly, the right draw to get through to his first Wimbledon final. If he can make it that far, he'll have to control his nerves to give Federer a run for his money.
Nikolay Davydenko (6)
There's not much to say about Nikolay Davydenko's prospects at Wimbledon other than he has none. He's played the event 5 times and has only won once. He plays a fellow Russian in the first round and if he can somehow survive that match, he'll play the winner of a match between two men who know how to play on grass – Alex Bogdanovic of Great Britain and Chris Guccione of Australia. That spells Game Over for Davydenko.
Fernando Gonzalez (5)
The world's sixth ranked player has had decent results on grass, but nothing to suggest that he can challenge for the Wimbledon crown. He has a difficult first round match with Robby Ginepri and then possibly an encounter with hard serving American, Sam Querrey. It will be quite a feat if Gonzalez can advance to the quarterfinal to meet his doom versus Federer.
Novak Djokovic (4)
In Paris, the young Serbian advanced to his first Grand Slam semifinal, but don't expect a repeat in London. If he comes through his first three matches, a troubling encounter with 16th seed Lleyton Hewitt awaits. Based on Djokovic's career grass court results, one can't see him defeating the Australian veteran on this surface. Like many of his counterparts, Novak will be happy to move to the hard court season.
Andy Roddick (3)
Andy Roddick is one of the few top players that feels comfortable on grass and he'll be looking to put the disappointment of a third round loss to Andy Murray at Wimbledon in 2006 behind him. Coming off a confidence boosting fourth title victory at Queen's Club last week, Roddick will be slightly disappointed that he's been drawn in the same half as Federer. However, Murray's withdrawal has vacated Roddick's quarter of the draw of another top seed, and has left 12th seeded Richard Gasquet as the next highest challenger. Beyond that, 15th seeded Ivan Ljubicic appears to be the only hurdle between the Texan and a semifinal date with Federer. Can Andy break through against Federer when it really matters? It says here that he can't. While Roddick's serve is a formidable weapon, his backhand and net game aren't polished enough to avoid being exploited by the Swiss Master. Roddick's tournament ends in the semifinal.
Rafael Nadal (2)
Many say that Rafael Nadal's run to the Wimbledon final in 2006 was a fluke. The draw fell perfectly for him they say. Well, some of that may be true, but when assessing Rafa's chances in 2007, it would be wise not to discount the young Spaniard too quickly. With such a short grass court season, there are fewer and fewer players who know how to play on the surface thus enabling Nadal to be on equal footing with his opponents. The fact that the All England Club has made the courts play similar to hard courts also works in Nadal's favor as he can expect truer bounces than perhaps some years ago when the courts were a bit softer.
However, it will be difficult for Nadal to repeat as Wimbledon finalist. He has an intriguing first round clash with Mardy Fish of the United States. Nadal defeated the hard serving Fish at Queen's Club in 2006, but Fish was still recovering from injury. The greatest danger to Rafa in his half is Tomas Berdych. Berdych holds a 3-2 advantage in head-to-head and has never lost to Nadal on a non-clay surface. They haven't played before on grass, but the surface favors Berdych's “first strike” style of tennis which he has used against Nadal successfully in the past.
Roger Federer (1)
After reading the above, it's no secret that Roger Federer will in all likelihood win Wimbledon for the fifth straight time.
Predictions
Semifinals
Federer defeats Roddick
Berdych defeats Hewitt
Final
Federer defeats Berdych
Sunday, June 24, 2007
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
French Open Rerun
It's been a few days since Rafael Nadal won his third consecutive French Open title by defeating Roger Federer in four sets, and I can't shake this feeling of deja vu. With a few exceptions, wasn't this just about the same match that we saw in 2006? That thought prompted me to go back and re-read what I wrote about the 2006 final, and I discovered that other than a few factual updates, the general gist of the article would be valid for this year's championship match.
So what does that tell us about Federer's approach to this match based on his 2006 experience? Is he stubborn enough to think that he can defeat Nadal from the baseline or does Rafa do such a good job of controlling points from the backcourt that Roger can't attack successfully? Did his victory in Hamburg give him a false sense of confidence coming into Paris?
Merely suggesting that Federer needs to attack and dictate play more is probably over-simplifying the strategy required to beat the 21 year-old Spaniard. Nadal's speed and strength make him an extremely difficult player to attack on clay and that has to weigh on Federer's mind when it comes to shot selection. However, in the matches that Federer has been successful against Nadal on clay, Rome 2006 and Hamburg 2007, he had played a more attack oriented style of play that paid dividends. Why not try that in Paris? Why not commit to an all-out attack?
On Sunday, he did it for a brief period of time and his effort was rewarded with a second set triumph. He was 9 of 10 in his net approaches in that set and he used his slice backhand effectively to attack the Nadal backhand. It appeared that he had found the key to winning the match in the second set, but a poor start to the third set took the wind out of the Swiss' sails. He never recovered from that moment and Nadal's physical style of play would dominate the rest of the day. The Federer we saw in the second set never reappeared and in his place we were left with a man that seemed content to play the match from the baseline to its inevitable conclusion – a Nadal victory.
So for the second year in a row, the championship match at Roland Garros was disappointing from a drama perspective. Federer couldn't stick to the aggressive game plan that he had verbally committed to before the match and he left his fans exasperated and disappointed. But let's give credit to El Rey del Clay because he certainly deserves it. The physically imposing Nadal proved that the ending of his win streak on clay in Hamburg meant nothing. It was simply time to start a new streak and Roland Garros provided courts that were far friendlier to his game than those in Germany. He wore down Federer both mentally and physically, and that's no easy feat. Federer may have claimed to be fitter and stronger than the world's No. 2, but the visual evidence was to the contrary.
By beating Federer for the third straight year in Paris, Nadal may have also proved that he is in Federer's head on this surface. Invariably, the Swiss master struggles to play well against Rafa on clay and admitted in his post-match interview that playing against the young lefty is awkward. Those aren't the words of supreme confidence that we usually hear from the world's best player and they are indicative of his state of mind when it comes to Nadal. As he did in 2006, Federer will look to Wimbledon as the vehicle to re-establish his confidence and supremacy over the game. But in the back of his mind, could he be worried that Rafael Nadal is ready to go one step further than last year and steal his Wimbledon crown?
So what does that tell us about Federer's approach to this match based on his 2006 experience? Is he stubborn enough to think that he can defeat Nadal from the baseline or does Rafa do such a good job of controlling points from the backcourt that Roger can't attack successfully? Did his victory in Hamburg give him a false sense of confidence coming into Paris?
Merely suggesting that Federer needs to attack and dictate play more is probably over-simplifying the strategy required to beat the 21 year-old Spaniard. Nadal's speed and strength make him an extremely difficult player to attack on clay and that has to weigh on Federer's mind when it comes to shot selection. However, in the matches that Federer has been successful against Nadal on clay, Rome 2006 and Hamburg 2007, he had played a more attack oriented style of play that paid dividends. Why not try that in Paris? Why not commit to an all-out attack?
On Sunday, he did it for a brief period of time and his effort was rewarded with a second set triumph. He was 9 of 10 in his net approaches in that set and he used his slice backhand effectively to attack the Nadal backhand. It appeared that he had found the key to winning the match in the second set, but a poor start to the third set took the wind out of the Swiss' sails. He never recovered from that moment and Nadal's physical style of play would dominate the rest of the day. The Federer we saw in the second set never reappeared and in his place we were left with a man that seemed content to play the match from the baseline to its inevitable conclusion – a Nadal victory.
So for the second year in a row, the championship match at Roland Garros was disappointing from a drama perspective. Federer couldn't stick to the aggressive game plan that he had verbally committed to before the match and he left his fans exasperated and disappointed. But let's give credit to El Rey del Clay because he certainly deserves it. The physically imposing Nadal proved that the ending of his win streak on clay in Hamburg meant nothing. It was simply time to start a new streak and Roland Garros provided courts that were far friendlier to his game than those in Germany. He wore down Federer both mentally and physically, and that's no easy feat. Federer may have claimed to be fitter and stronger than the world's No. 2, but the visual evidence was to the contrary.
By beating Federer for the third straight year in Paris, Nadal may have also proved that he is in Federer's head on this surface. Invariably, the Swiss master struggles to play well against Rafa on clay and admitted in his post-match interview that playing against the young lefty is awkward. Those aren't the words of supreme confidence that we usually hear from the world's best player and they are indicative of his state of mind when it comes to Nadal. As he did in 2006, Federer will look to Wimbledon as the vehicle to re-establish his confidence and supremacy over the game. But in the back of his mind, could he be worried that Rafael Nadal is ready to go one step further than last year and steal his Wimbledon crown?
Sunday, June 10, 2007
Federer And Nadal - History In The Making
It's a good thing I don't make a living as a prognosticator of tennis matches or else I would be living in a cardboard box next to my local subway station asking passersby if they had seen Svetlana Kuznetsova's tennis game, since she clearly misplaced it in her quarterfinal match versus Ana Invanovic. Although my recent French Open predictions were of their usual low quality, even I was able to forecast the combatants in Sunday's Men's Singles final at Roland Garros between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal.
Such is their dominance of the sport that for the second consecutive year, it's Federer and Nadal playing on Championship Sunday. Is it boring that tennis has become so predictable and that we have all known for weeks that these two men would be in the final at Roland Garros? Does tennis need someone to break up the Federer – Nadal monopoly to restore some parity to the sport? The answers to both of these questions are the same and it is, quite simply, no. If you want parity, then watch the NFL.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are the two best tennis players on the planet and each of them is on an historic quest. With a victory in the final, the Swiss No. 1 will hold all four of the Grand Slam titles at once and will be favored to complete a calendar year Grand Slam in 2007. If he does that, it will be difficult to dispute his place in the game as the Greatest of All-Time.
At the moment, one man stands in the way of the Federer Express and it is a man who at 21 years of age is already leaving his mark on the game. Rafael Nadal's accomplishments on clay are the stuff of legend. If he captures the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday, he will be the first player to go undefeated in his first three French Opens. John McEnroe has called Nadal a 21st Century Bjorn Borg which is high praise from Mac considering he listed Borg in his top 5 of greatest players of all-time.
Yet there are tennis fans that believe the Fedrer-Nadal stranglehold on the sport is a bad thing and it would be best if someone broke up the party. Supposedly, it is boring that these two meet in the finals of multiple major events per year. However, these fans are under-appreciating what we are witnessing from these two exceptional players. Quite frankly, what we are seeing is history being made and we should feel privileged to be a part of it. When discussing the topic of Greatest of All-Time, how many of us can actually claim to know what we are talking about when it comes to some of the past giants of the game like Laver, Kramer and Tilden to name a few? Well, perhaps in 15 to 20 years, we will all be able to discuss that topic a little more competently because of what we are seeing from Federer and Nadal today.
More Grand Slam finals between these two is a good thing for our sport and it will give the casual fan something recognizable to latch onto when considering tennis for its entertainment value. So let's not push these players off the stage before their time. Instead, let us revel in their accomplishments and in the rivalry that they have fostered, and recognize how truly lucky we are to be living at a time when we can see such great players. We may never be so lucky again in our lives to enjoy such tennis genius. To hope for that to end seems foolhardy indeed.
Such is their dominance of the sport that for the second consecutive year, it's Federer and Nadal playing on Championship Sunday. Is it boring that tennis has become so predictable and that we have all known for weeks that these two men would be in the final at Roland Garros? Does tennis need someone to break up the Federer – Nadal monopoly to restore some parity to the sport? The answers to both of these questions are the same and it is, quite simply, no. If you want parity, then watch the NFL.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal are the two best tennis players on the planet and each of them is on an historic quest. With a victory in the final, the Swiss No. 1 will hold all four of the Grand Slam titles at once and will be favored to complete a calendar year Grand Slam in 2007. If he does that, it will be difficult to dispute his place in the game as the Greatest of All-Time.
At the moment, one man stands in the way of the Federer Express and it is a man who at 21 years of age is already leaving his mark on the game. Rafael Nadal's accomplishments on clay are the stuff of legend. If he captures the Coupe des Mousquetaires on Sunday, he will be the first player to go undefeated in his first three French Opens. John McEnroe has called Nadal a 21st Century Bjorn Borg which is high praise from Mac considering he listed Borg in his top 5 of greatest players of all-time.
Yet there are tennis fans that believe the Fedrer-Nadal stranglehold on the sport is a bad thing and it would be best if someone broke up the party. Supposedly, it is boring that these two meet in the finals of multiple major events per year. However, these fans are under-appreciating what we are witnessing from these two exceptional players. Quite frankly, what we are seeing is history being made and we should feel privileged to be a part of it. When discussing the topic of Greatest of All-Time, how many of us can actually claim to know what we are talking about when it comes to some of the past giants of the game like Laver, Kramer and Tilden to name a few? Well, perhaps in 15 to 20 years, we will all be able to discuss that topic a little more competently because of what we are seeing from Federer and Nadal today.
More Grand Slam finals between these two is a good thing for our sport and it will give the casual fan something recognizable to latch onto when considering tennis for its entertainment value. So let's not push these players off the stage before their time. Instead, let us revel in their accomplishments and in the rivalry that they have fostered, and recognize how truly lucky we are to be living at a time when we can see such great players. We may never be so lucky again in our lives to enjoy such tennis genius. To hope for that to end seems foolhardy indeed.
Monday, June 04, 2007
Men's Quartefinal Preview
After Monday's matches at Roland Garros, the men have reached the quarterfinal round of the French Open. Let's take a look at the match-ups from the quarters through the final on Sunday.
Roger Federer (1) vs. Tommy Robredo (9)
While Tommy Robredo is certainly an accomplished clay court player, he's had very little luck with Roger Federer on the surface. His career record versus the Swiss Master stands at 0-7 with two of those losses coming on clay. Federer hasn't dropped a set to Robredo since 2002. Robredo simply doesn't have the game to hurt Federer on any surface and that includes clay.
Pick: Federer cruises comfortably in straight sets.
Nikolay Davydenko (4) vs. Guillermo Cañas (19)
This match has the potential to be the longest match played at the French Open this year. Both players are veritable backboards and are each in supreme shape. The two have not played since Cañas has returned to the tour from his drug suspension, but prior to that the Argentine held a 3-1 advantage in their matches played. Their only match on clay was in 2004 and Cañas won that in 3 sets.
To this point in the tournament, both players have looked solid in their performances and each man has lost only one set. The difference may come down to patience and which player is willing to wait out the other.
Pick: Cañas runs his tail off in this match and wins in 4 grueling sets.
Novak Djokovic (6) vs. Igor Andreev
These two men met in the first round at Estoril in late April in their only encounter to date, and Djokovic emerged victorious in a 3rd set tiebreak. This match figures to be as close as that one. Andreev has been hot in Paris from the start with a victory over third seeded Andy Roddick in the first round, followed up by victories over Nicolas Massu, Paul-Henri Mathieu and the 16th seed Marcos Baghdatis. The 23 year-old Russian seems to have found his dominating forehand in time for a deep run at Roland Garros, but will it be enough to conquer one of the rising stars on the men's tour?
2007 could be Novak Djokovic's breakout year. He won his first ATP Master Series title in Miami and was a finalist in Indian Wells. He also captured the championship at Estoril on clay. However, his path to the quarterfinals has not been entirely smooth. He was fortunate to escape his third round match with France's Olivier Patience – a match he eventually won in 5 sets. At times, the 20 year-old Serb hasn't looked comfortable moving on the dry clay and that could be his downfall versus Andreev, as the Russian will look to use his forehand to maneuver his opponent around the court.
Pick: Andreev in 5 sets.
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Carlos Moya (23)
There are probably no two players on tour who know each other as well as these men from Mallorca. That makes this a dangerous match for tournament favorite Rafael Nadal as good friend Carlos Moya knows his game as well as his own. Nadal holds a 3-2 edge over Moya in matches with Rafa winning their last meeting in Rome in 2006. Each of their last three matches has gone the distance, so when they play, the matches are tight.
Both players have had relatively easy paths to this point in the tournament, so fatigue should not be a factor. That's especially important for the 31 year-old Moya who has to figure out a way to compete physically with a man 10 years his junior. The key to the match will be who can control more points with his forehand. Neither man wants to hit too many backhands, although Nadal is stronger off that wing than his good buddy.
Pick: Nadal is able to use his forehand to his advantage and pick on the weaker backhand of Moya to win in 4 sets.
Semifinals
Federer vs. Cañas
Amazingly, Cañas has defeated Federer twice this year on hard courts. Can he repeat the feat on clay at Roland Garros? Well, he certainly has a shot if he can frustrate the world's number one player the way he did in Indian Wells and Miami. Cañas simply would not miss in those matches and that fact got into Federer's head. The Swiss Master started going for too much on his shots and making errors, and fell right into the trap that Cañas laid for him.
However, Federer appears to have righted the ship since those hard court events in the US. He's playing more patiently and not going for too much too early in the points. He'll need to stay extra focused in this match as he hasn't played anyone as steady as Cañas yet.
Pick: Federer avenges his earlier defeats to the Argentine with a straight sets victory.
Nadal vs. Andreev
Although most people would have expected Novak Djokovic to be facing Nadal in this match, we're sticking with Andreev. Like the Moya – Nadal match, this one will be another battle of the forehands. These two men met recently in Hamburg and Nadal won convincingly 6-4, 6-1. However, I think we all know that Andreev has a win over Nadal on clay as that was Nadal's last loss on the surface before Roger Federer defeated him in the final at Hamburg.
Both players come into this match playing their best, but I can't see Nadal dropping a best of five set match to the Russian.
Pick: Nadal wins in 3 close sets.
Final
Federer vs. Nadal
For the third time during this clay court season, we have a final with the top two players in the world as well as a repeat of the 2006 French Open Final. Much has been made of Federer's triumph over Nadal in Hamburg, but now it is time for the number one seed to prove that he can do it in Paris. Nadal has never lost a match at Roland Garros and the drier clay is much more to his liking than the heavy and wet conditions of Hamburg.
Federer's confidence against Nadal should be at an all-time high since he finally proved that he can beat the Spaniard on clay. On the other hand, Nadal should be fresher both physically and mentally than he was during their last encounter and will be ready to give it his all across 5 sets. As usual when these two meet, the key will be how Federer handles the high ball into his backhand wing. If he can get on top of it and drive it, he'll be in good position to dictate play. However, if he's forced to simply return his backhand into play, that may give Nadal the opening he needs to hit his inside-out forehand for multiple winners.
Pick: Nadal wins his third consecutive French Open title and remains undefeated at Roland Garros in five grueling sets.
Who are your picks to advance at Roland Garros?
Roger Federer (1) vs. Tommy Robredo (9)
While Tommy Robredo is certainly an accomplished clay court player, he's had very little luck with Roger Federer on the surface. His career record versus the Swiss Master stands at 0-7 with two of those losses coming on clay. Federer hasn't dropped a set to Robredo since 2002. Robredo simply doesn't have the game to hurt Federer on any surface and that includes clay.
Pick: Federer cruises comfortably in straight sets.
Nikolay Davydenko (4) vs. Guillermo Cañas (19)
This match has the potential to be the longest match played at the French Open this year. Both players are veritable backboards and are each in supreme shape. The two have not played since Cañas has returned to the tour from his drug suspension, but prior to that the Argentine held a 3-1 advantage in their matches played. Their only match on clay was in 2004 and Cañas won that in 3 sets.
To this point in the tournament, both players have looked solid in their performances and each man has lost only one set. The difference may come down to patience and which player is willing to wait out the other.
Pick: Cañas runs his tail off in this match and wins in 4 grueling sets.
Novak Djokovic (6) vs. Igor Andreev
These two men met in the first round at Estoril in late April in their only encounter to date, and Djokovic emerged victorious in a 3rd set tiebreak. This match figures to be as close as that one. Andreev has been hot in Paris from the start with a victory over third seeded Andy Roddick in the first round, followed up by victories over Nicolas Massu, Paul-Henri Mathieu and the 16th seed Marcos Baghdatis. The 23 year-old Russian seems to have found his dominating forehand in time for a deep run at Roland Garros, but will it be enough to conquer one of the rising stars on the men's tour?
2007 could be Novak Djokovic's breakout year. He won his first ATP Master Series title in Miami and was a finalist in Indian Wells. He also captured the championship at Estoril on clay. However, his path to the quarterfinals has not been entirely smooth. He was fortunate to escape his third round match with France's Olivier Patience – a match he eventually won in 5 sets. At times, the 20 year-old Serb hasn't looked comfortable moving on the dry clay and that could be his downfall versus Andreev, as the Russian will look to use his forehand to maneuver his opponent around the court.
Pick: Andreev in 5 sets.
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Carlos Moya (23)
There are probably no two players on tour who know each other as well as these men from Mallorca. That makes this a dangerous match for tournament favorite Rafael Nadal as good friend Carlos Moya knows his game as well as his own. Nadal holds a 3-2 edge over Moya in matches with Rafa winning their last meeting in Rome in 2006. Each of their last three matches has gone the distance, so when they play, the matches are tight.
Both players have had relatively easy paths to this point in the tournament, so fatigue should not be a factor. That's especially important for the 31 year-old Moya who has to figure out a way to compete physically with a man 10 years his junior. The key to the match will be who can control more points with his forehand. Neither man wants to hit too many backhands, although Nadal is stronger off that wing than his good buddy.
Pick: Nadal is able to use his forehand to his advantage and pick on the weaker backhand of Moya to win in 4 sets.
Semifinals
Federer vs. Cañas
Amazingly, Cañas has defeated Federer twice this year on hard courts. Can he repeat the feat on clay at Roland Garros? Well, he certainly has a shot if he can frustrate the world's number one player the way he did in Indian Wells and Miami. Cañas simply would not miss in those matches and that fact got into Federer's head. The Swiss Master started going for too much on his shots and making errors, and fell right into the trap that Cañas laid for him.
However, Federer appears to have righted the ship since those hard court events in the US. He's playing more patiently and not going for too much too early in the points. He'll need to stay extra focused in this match as he hasn't played anyone as steady as Cañas yet.
Pick: Federer avenges his earlier defeats to the Argentine with a straight sets victory.
Nadal vs. Andreev
Although most people would have expected Novak Djokovic to be facing Nadal in this match, we're sticking with Andreev. Like the Moya – Nadal match, this one will be another battle of the forehands. These two men met recently in Hamburg and Nadal won convincingly 6-4, 6-1. However, I think we all know that Andreev has a win over Nadal on clay as that was Nadal's last loss on the surface before Roger Federer defeated him in the final at Hamburg.
Both players come into this match playing their best, but I can't see Nadal dropping a best of five set match to the Russian.
Pick: Nadal wins in 3 close sets.
Final
Federer vs. Nadal
For the third time during this clay court season, we have a final with the top two players in the world as well as a repeat of the 2006 French Open Final. Much has been made of Federer's triumph over Nadal in Hamburg, but now it is time for the number one seed to prove that he can do it in Paris. Nadal has never lost a match at Roland Garros and the drier clay is much more to his liking than the heavy and wet conditions of Hamburg.
Federer's confidence against Nadal should be at an all-time high since he finally proved that he can beat the Spaniard on clay. On the other hand, Nadal should be fresher both physically and mentally than he was during their last encounter and will be ready to give it his all across 5 sets. As usual when these two meet, the key will be how Federer handles the high ball into his backhand wing. If he can get on top of it and drive it, he'll be in good position to dictate play. However, if he's forced to simply return his backhand into play, that may give Nadal the opening he needs to hit his inside-out forehand for multiple winners.
Pick: Nadal wins his third consecutive French Open title and remains undefeated at Roland Garros in five grueling sets.
Who are your picks to advance at Roland Garros?
Sunday, June 03, 2007
French Open - Ladies Preview for Week 2
The ladies have reached the quarterfinals at Roland Garros so it's time to take a look at the match-ups and predict a winner for the 2007 French Open.
Justine Henin (1) vs. Serena Williams (8)
At the top of the draw is the marquee encounter of the tournament and it's one worthy of being a final. Serena leads the head-to-head 6-3, but they haven't played each other on clay since their infamous clash in Paris in 2003 when Justine raised her hand to stop play late in the third set and then didn't own up to doing it when it became controversial. Her lack of sportsmanship aside, Henin is probably the best player on clay at the moment and she's been moving around the court beautifully in this tournament. She's advanced to this point without dropping a set.
Serena's fitness hasn't been an issue yet in Paris, but this might be the match where it becomes one. She was a little shaky in her opening match against Tsvetana Pironkova, but has started to improve with each match. That's reminiscent of her performance at the Australian Open in January where she played herself into form resulting in a crushing defeat of Maria Sharapova in the final.
Pick: Henin – Justine takes the match in 3 tough sets.
Jelena Jankovic (4) vs. Nicole Vaidisova (6)
Jelena Jankovic came to Paris as one of the hottest players on the WTA tour and she hasn't disappointed her fans at Roland Garros. Aside from a difficult match with Venus Williams, she's rolled into the quarterfinals playing her best tennis. Can she reach her second career Grand Slam semifinal?
On the other side of the net, Nicole Vaidisova was forced to withdraw from her last 3 events with a wrist injury and hasn't had much competitive play on clay this spring. Regardless, she has also moved into the quarters without much resistance and now looks to reach her second Grand Slam semifinal of 2007. Jankovic has won two of their last three encounters with all of them going 3 sets.
Pick: Jankovic wins in 3 sets to set up a rematch of her US Open semifinal versus Justine Henin.
Ana Ivanovic (7) vs. Svetalana Kuznetsova (3)
These two ladies just played each other a few weeks ago in the final at Berlin with Ivanovic winning in 3 sets. What that result doesn't tell you is that it was Kuznetsova's second match of the day after she had beaten Justine Henin earlier in a 3 set battle. In the final, Kuznetsova claimed that she was mentally drained from her victory over Henin and wasn't able to compete the way she wanted to.
Both players have moved to this point in the tournament with relative ease, although Ivanovic struggled a bit on Sunday against Anabel Medina Garrigues. She'll have to improve on that performance in order to beat the Russian.
Pick: Kuznetsova continues her fine form in Paris and wins in straight sets.
Anna Chakvetadze (9) vs. Maria Sharapova (2)
A rematch of their Australian Open quarterfinal is on the docket for these two 20 year-old Russians. Maria Sharapova has never lost to Chakvetadze (3-0) and that includes a win at Roland Garros in 2005. Of course, Chakvetadze is a much improved player since 2005 so that result may not be particularly significant in evaluating this match.
What is significant is that both players have come to Roland Garros with shoulder issues hampering their preparation. On Sunday, each player was pushed to three sets and Sharapova managed to survive two match points against her. As is often the case in Maria's matches, her mental toughness pulled her through.
Pick: Sharapova has the mental edge on Chakvetadze and wins in 2 close sets.
Semifinals
Henin (1) vs. Jankovic (4)
These two ladies have already played each other three times in 2007 as well as a semifinal clash in the 2006 US Open. Unfortunately for Jankovic, she's lost all of those matches and has an 0-5 record against the diminutive Belgian. Jankovic has come close to victory in the five previous encounters, but she hasn't been able to solve the Henin puzzle. Will Paris be different?
Pick: Henin continues her mastery over Jankovic in another 3 set battle and reaches her fifth consecutive Grand Slam final.
Kuznetsova (3) vs. Sharapova (2)
This semifinal looks to be another all-Russian affair for Maria Sharapova, but in this match up, she doesn't have the advantage in the head-to-head as their record stands at 3-3. They have never played each other on clay and this will be their first meeting of 2007 so this match is a difficult one to predict. Sharapova will bring an aggressive game and her mental strength to the court. The question will be whether Kuznetsova can handle the moment well enough to defeat one of the toughest competitors on the women's tour.
Pick: Kuznetsova's clay court form propels her into the final in 3 tough sets, and gives her a chance to avenge her defeat in last year's French Open final versus Justine Henin.
Final
Henin (1) vs. Kuznetsova (3)
A few weeks ago in Berlin, Kuznetsova managed to squeeze out a three set victory over Henin in the semifinals of the Berlin Open before losing the final to Ana Invanovic. That was only the Russian's second victory versus Henin in 16 tries. Those numbers don't tell a compelling story for the Russian's chances in this match especially since two of her losses versus Henin have occurred at Roland Garros.
For Justine, a victory in Paris would be her third consecutive French Open crown and would cement her reputation as the tour's top clay court player.
Pick: Henin does it again with a straight sets victory over her Russian foe.
What are your predictions for the rest of the tournament?
Justine Henin (1) vs. Serena Williams (8)
At the top of the draw is the marquee encounter of the tournament and it's one worthy of being a final. Serena leads the head-to-head 6-3, but they haven't played each other on clay since their infamous clash in Paris in 2003 when Justine raised her hand to stop play late in the third set and then didn't own up to doing it when it became controversial. Her lack of sportsmanship aside, Henin is probably the best player on clay at the moment and she's been moving around the court beautifully in this tournament. She's advanced to this point without dropping a set.
Serena's fitness hasn't been an issue yet in Paris, but this might be the match where it becomes one. She was a little shaky in her opening match against Tsvetana Pironkova, but has started to improve with each match. That's reminiscent of her performance at the Australian Open in January where she played herself into form resulting in a crushing defeat of Maria Sharapova in the final.
Pick: Henin – Justine takes the match in 3 tough sets.
Jelena Jankovic (4) vs. Nicole Vaidisova (6)
Jelena Jankovic came to Paris as one of the hottest players on the WTA tour and she hasn't disappointed her fans at Roland Garros. Aside from a difficult match with Venus Williams, she's rolled into the quarterfinals playing her best tennis. Can she reach her second career Grand Slam semifinal?
On the other side of the net, Nicole Vaidisova was forced to withdraw from her last 3 events with a wrist injury and hasn't had much competitive play on clay this spring. Regardless, she has also moved into the quarters without much resistance and now looks to reach her second Grand Slam semifinal of 2007. Jankovic has won two of their last three encounters with all of them going 3 sets.
Pick: Jankovic wins in 3 sets to set up a rematch of her US Open semifinal versus Justine Henin.
Ana Ivanovic (7) vs. Svetalana Kuznetsova (3)
These two ladies just played each other a few weeks ago in the final at Berlin with Ivanovic winning in 3 sets. What that result doesn't tell you is that it was Kuznetsova's second match of the day after she had beaten Justine Henin earlier in a 3 set battle. In the final, Kuznetsova claimed that she was mentally drained from her victory over Henin and wasn't able to compete the way she wanted to.
Both players have moved to this point in the tournament with relative ease, although Ivanovic struggled a bit on Sunday against Anabel Medina Garrigues. She'll have to improve on that performance in order to beat the Russian.
Pick: Kuznetsova continues her fine form in Paris and wins in straight sets.
Anna Chakvetadze (9) vs. Maria Sharapova (2)
A rematch of their Australian Open quarterfinal is on the docket for these two 20 year-old Russians. Maria Sharapova has never lost to Chakvetadze (3-0) and that includes a win at Roland Garros in 2005. Of course, Chakvetadze is a much improved player since 2005 so that result may not be particularly significant in evaluating this match.
What is significant is that both players have come to Roland Garros with shoulder issues hampering their preparation. On Sunday, each player was pushed to three sets and Sharapova managed to survive two match points against her. As is often the case in Maria's matches, her mental toughness pulled her through.
Pick: Sharapova has the mental edge on Chakvetadze and wins in 2 close sets.
Semifinals
Henin (1) vs. Jankovic (4)
These two ladies have already played each other three times in 2007 as well as a semifinal clash in the 2006 US Open. Unfortunately for Jankovic, she's lost all of those matches and has an 0-5 record against the diminutive Belgian. Jankovic has come close to victory in the five previous encounters, but she hasn't been able to solve the Henin puzzle. Will Paris be different?
Pick: Henin continues her mastery over Jankovic in another 3 set battle and reaches her fifth consecutive Grand Slam final.
Kuznetsova (3) vs. Sharapova (2)
This semifinal looks to be another all-Russian affair for Maria Sharapova, but in this match up, she doesn't have the advantage in the head-to-head as their record stands at 3-3. They have never played each other on clay and this will be their first meeting of 2007 so this match is a difficult one to predict. Sharapova will bring an aggressive game and her mental strength to the court. The question will be whether Kuznetsova can handle the moment well enough to defeat one of the toughest competitors on the women's tour.
Pick: Kuznetsova's clay court form propels her into the final in 3 tough sets, and gives her a chance to avenge her defeat in last year's French Open final versus Justine Henin.
Final
Henin (1) vs. Kuznetsova (3)
A few weeks ago in Berlin, Kuznetsova managed to squeeze out a three set victory over Henin in the semifinals of the Berlin Open before losing the final to Ana Invanovic. That was only the Russian's second victory versus Henin in 16 tries. Those numbers don't tell a compelling story for the Russian's chances in this match especially since two of her losses versus Henin have occurred at Roland Garros.
For Justine, a victory in Paris would be her third consecutive French Open crown and would cement her reputation as the tour's top clay court player.
Pick: Henin does it again with a straight sets victory over her Russian foe.
What are your predictions for the rest of the tournament?
Roland Garros - Week 1 Thoughts
American Men
The first few days of the 2007 French Open were dominated by rain and if you were an American male tennis player, you probably wished the rain had never stopped. Not a single American man was able to advance beyond the first round, including the world's number 3 player Andy Roddick, in an amazing display of incompetence on clay. American struggles at Roland Garros have been well chronicled over the years, but typically the discussion has focused on the difficulty of winning the tournament, not of winning a match.
With the rise of Spanish tennis in the 1990's, the Spaniards were criticized for specializing on clay and giving little attention to their games on the faster surfaces. Some Spanish players and other clay court specialists would show up at Wimbledon with absolutely no preparation and would make a quick exit. Under those circumstances, the question was why even play the tournament if you don't prepare? It was a good question and it is one that the Spanish, as well as other European and South American players, have answered quite well. Not only have they continued to be the dominant force on clay, they have become contenders on all other surfaces and have emerged as the new powers in tennis. In Spain, hard courts and grass courts were built to help train their players on the other Grand Slam surfaces, and the results have begun to follow. Spaniards Carlos Moya, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Rafael Nadal, and South Americans David Nalbandian, Fernando Gonzalez and Marcelo Rios have all been finalists at non-clay Grand Slams since 1997.
Now the shoe is on the other foot and it's time for American tennis to decide if it wants to address its woes on clay. It will require a tennis culture change as hard courts in the US are being built to play faster and faster, and power is taught as the main component of the game. Until more clay courts are built in the US for junior players to train on, the trend of ineptitude on clay for the American men will in all likelihood continue.
Other Thoughts
Once again, Ivan Ljubicic has lived up to his billing as Grand Slam underachiever, this time with a third round loss to Italian Filippo Volandri. In the first 2 majors of the year, the number 7 player in the world has won just 2 matches, both in Paris.
Although the big story in the US has been the misfortunes of the American men, there are also no French men remaining as Week 2 begins. Of the four host nations of the Grand Slams, only Australia has a male player remaining in the event, Lleyton Hewitt, and he is not typically considered a great clay court player. This is just another indication of how the once traditional powers in tennis have lost their dominance.
With three of the most exciting players in the game today, there's an outside chance that the men's and women's champions could come from Serbia. Novak Djokovic, Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic are all still in the mix and each of them has a good opportunity to advance further.
The continuing demise of Venus Williams was on full display in Paris in the first week of Roland Garros. While her three set loss to Jelena Jankovic was certainly respectable, Venus continues to ignore the mechanical flaws in her own game while at the same time seems unable to ever give her opponents any credit. It is always about how she played poorly, or in the case of the Jankovic match, how she over-trained for the event and that made her tired in the final set. Apparently, it had nothing to do with the fact that she has only played 6 tournaments this year compared to the 14 that Jankovic has played.
The first few days of the 2007 French Open were dominated by rain and if you were an American male tennis player, you probably wished the rain had never stopped. Not a single American man was able to advance beyond the first round, including the world's number 3 player Andy Roddick, in an amazing display of incompetence on clay. American struggles at Roland Garros have been well chronicled over the years, but typically the discussion has focused on the difficulty of winning the tournament, not of winning a match.
With the rise of Spanish tennis in the 1990's, the Spaniards were criticized for specializing on clay and giving little attention to their games on the faster surfaces. Some Spanish players and other clay court specialists would show up at Wimbledon with absolutely no preparation and would make a quick exit. Under those circumstances, the question was why even play the tournament if you don't prepare? It was a good question and it is one that the Spanish, as well as other European and South American players, have answered quite well. Not only have they continued to be the dominant force on clay, they have become contenders on all other surfaces and have emerged as the new powers in tennis. In Spain, hard courts and grass courts were built to help train their players on the other Grand Slam surfaces, and the results have begun to follow. Spaniards Carlos Moya, Juan Carlos Ferrero, Rafael Nadal, and South Americans David Nalbandian, Fernando Gonzalez and Marcelo Rios have all been finalists at non-clay Grand Slams since 1997.
Now the shoe is on the other foot and it's time for American tennis to decide if it wants to address its woes on clay. It will require a tennis culture change as hard courts in the US are being built to play faster and faster, and power is taught as the main component of the game. Until more clay courts are built in the US for junior players to train on, the trend of ineptitude on clay for the American men will in all likelihood continue.
Other Thoughts
Once again, Ivan Ljubicic has lived up to his billing as Grand Slam underachiever, this time with a third round loss to Italian Filippo Volandri. In the first 2 majors of the year, the number 7 player in the world has won just 2 matches, both in Paris.
Although the big story in the US has been the misfortunes of the American men, there are also no French men remaining as Week 2 begins. Of the four host nations of the Grand Slams, only Australia has a male player remaining in the event, Lleyton Hewitt, and he is not typically considered a great clay court player. This is just another indication of how the once traditional powers in tennis have lost their dominance.
With three of the most exciting players in the game today, there's an outside chance that the men's and women's champions could come from Serbia. Novak Djokovic, Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic are all still in the mix and each of them has a good opportunity to advance further.
The continuing demise of Venus Williams was on full display in Paris in the first week of Roland Garros. While her three set loss to Jelena Jankovic was certainly respectable, Venus continues to ignore the mechanical flaws in her own game while at the same time seems unable to ever give her opponents any credit. It is always about how she played poorly, or in the case of the Jankovic match, how she over-trained for the event and that made her tired in the final set. Apparently, it had nothing to do with the fact that she has only played 6 tournaments this year compared to the 14 that Jankovic has played.
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