World Cup Thoughts - Part 1

With the first of the World Cup semifinals taking place today (Italy vs. Germany), the time seems appropriate to comment on the tournament thus far. Let’s start by reviewing the progress of the four semi-finalists.

Germany – It’s been no secret in international soccer that the German national team has been in decline for several years despite their second place finish at the 2002 World Cup in Korea/Japan. As the host nation, the Germans were directly entered into the final 32 so it was difficult to gauge how much the team had progressed in the last few years. A poor showing versus the Italians in March (a 4-1 loss) seemed to indicate that national team manager, Juergen Klinsmann, had much work to do before their opening match on June 9 versus Costa Rica.

But as host nations often do, the Germans have raised the level of their performances in this tournament and have capitalized on the tremendous public support they’ve received, especially since their last second 1-0 victory versus Poland. The Germans don’t necessarily have the stars of some of the other semifinalists, but they do have their characteristically well-organized style of play working well. Coming into today’s match with Italy, Germany does not have a good record in World Cup play with their neighbors to the south. However, it’s always dangerous to bet against a host nation, especially one as good as Germany.

Italy – Coming into the 2006 World Cup, many soccer observers wondered if the team might be distracted by the match-fixing scandal surrounding some of Italy’s largest club teams. Of course, match fixing scandals are nothing new in Italy, this one just happens to involve some major figures in the Italian game, and the team hasn’t been phased by any of the events going on at home. Thus far, they’ve progressed in typical Italian fashion – solid defense and opportunistic offense combined with the usual flopping around on the pitch and incessant whining to the referees. If you detect some hostility toward the Azzurri, you’re correct, but it isn’t due to what occurred when the US played Italy earlier in this tournament. It goes way back to 1982 when I watched my first World Cup and I’ll detail more of that in my upcoming World Cup Memories posts.

In this tournament, the Italians came through group play extremely well and have entered the semi-finals with a controversial late penalty kick versus Australia and a comfortable victory over the Ukraine. The match-up with the Germans should be a classic clash of styles that may not translate into an enjoyable game to watch. Italy’s style often diffuses the creativity of its opponents and they’ll look to suffocate the energy of the Germans early in the match. If the Azzurri can get an early goal, look for the Italians to choke the life out of the game and to demonstrate why they are the masters of the 1-0 score-line. My pick: Italy 2-1.

France – Les Bleus have had a collective hangover since their Euro 2000 victory over the Italians, but there are signs in this tournament that they may be recovering in time to capture the 2006 World Cup. A round of 16 victory over Spain, a country that France has never lost a competitive match to, served as inspiration for their quarterfinal clash with reigning World Champions Brazil. The French have had good history with the Brazilians in World Cup play. Twenty years ago, France defeated Brazil in the quarterfinals in Mexico, and of course, in 1998, the French raised the trophy at the expense of the Samba Kings.

Although this team’s average age is close to 30, it’s a very talented group of players who have had success at the highest level. Now that they’ve started playing well again as a team, there’s an excellent chance that the French will raise the World Cup trophy for the second time on July 9 in Berlin.

Portugal – Perhaps the most talented soccer nation to never have won a major championship, the Portuguese have equaled their best progress at a World Cup, and they look to go further in an intriguing clash with France. Although history is not always an accurate predictor, history is not on the side of Portugal. The French have a decided advantage in head-to-head play including victories in their last seven encounters.

On the other hand, this team may be ready to take the next step toward conquering a World Cup. Led by “Big Phil” Felipe Scolari, a Brazilian who knows how to win, this Portuguese side looks to have the mental strength that their past brethren have not. At Euro 2004, they advanced to the final before succumbing to a Greek team that had no interest in playing attractive soccer. In this tournament, they’ve progressed to the semifinals in impressive fashion, most notably dispatching their old friends England on penalty kicks just as they did at Euro 2004.

Scolari’s challenge is to get his team ready to play a French side that can match them in technical skill on the ball and has a star-studded line-up. Given France’s talent, it’s not a huge surprise that they defeated a less than impressive Brazil, and the Portuguese will have to cope with a team that is growing in confidence. My pick: France 2-1.

In part 2, we’ll review the performances of some other nations of note, including the United States and England.