Now What?

Now that Roger Federer has managed to finally trip up Rafael Nadal on clay, the operative question becomes, what will happen at Roland Garros? Prior to last week's ATP Master Series Hamburg event, a third consecutive triumph in Paris for Rafael Nadal appeared to be a near certainty. Victories in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome solidified the Spaniard's standing as El Rey del Clay and quite frankly, he's looked better on the dirt this year than he did last. As for Roger Federer, he looked poor in the Monte Carlo final versus Nadal and he suffered a stunning defeat in Rome at the hands of world number 53, Filippo Volandri. Those aren't the types of performances on which to build confidence in order to win the one Grand Slam title missing from the résumé.

Hamburg just may have changed that for Federer. Admittedly, he was playing poorly throughout the tournament including the first set of the final, but at 0-1, 15-40, something appeared to click mentally for Federer. Instead of trying to end points quickly, he worked the points more patiently and controlled the play until he could end the rallies with a high percentage shot. Up until that juncture in the match, the world's number one had been trying unsuccessfully to hit flashy winners in an attempt to dictate play and shorten the points. However, this change in approach enabled Federer to escape break points on his serve and recover from what could have been the decisive break of the match. From that moment on, the tenor of the match changed. Federer was now in charge, playing cleaner tennis, and Nadal, who hadn't been playing that well to begin with, was more error prone than usual.

While Nadal is still the bookmakers' favorite even after yesterday's loss, his air of invincibility on clay has been removed. All of a sudden, the Federer Express appears to be back on track for its ultimate destination of Greatest Player of All-Time. It's a track that will eventually require a Championship stop at Roland Garros Station in order to complete that journey, and 2007 may be the year that the Fed Train arrives there on the third Sunday of the tournament.

Understandably, Federer supporters are coming out in droves in support of their man and his chances of winning the French Open now that he has finally deposed Nadal on clay. But will this match be the turning point in Federer's season or will he go back to his impatient, error-filled tennis of the last few months? Through the Australian Open and Dubai, Federer had been playing so well that one wonders if he had become psychologically addicted to hitting brilliant winners at will and that that possibly led to his mini-slump when he couldn't adjust to missing his shots. Anyone who plays the game knows that hitting winners is addictive to the point where it can begin to change your approach to point construction. Suddenly, you lose patience and you try to end the points before you should. Only by breaking the addiction can you begin to focus on playing good tennis and letting the results follow. It remains to be seen whether Federer has completely emerged from his rough patch and can return to his previous championship form.

As for Nadal, I was surprised that he played Hamburg because of the potential to get over-tired with so many more matches on clay, and the fact that he had skipped the event the last two years. Rafa did appear tired and drained in the final and his fans are left wondering how he will overcome this defeat and the end of his record winning streak. A weeks rest will do the Mallorcan well in his quest for a third consecutive French Open title, but the psychological hurdle may be more difficult to overcome. He'll be looking forward to his first round match next week to exercise the demons from his game and re-establish himself as El Rey del Clay.

Based on yesterday's result, one thing is clear – we've got Game On for this year's French Open and tennis fans are the big winners.