Sunday, June 03, 2007

French Open - Ladies Preview for Week 2

The ladies have reached the quarterfinals at Roland Garros so it's time to take a look at the match-ups and predict a winner for the 2007 French Open.

Justine Henin (1) vs. Serena Williams (8)
At the top of the draw is the marquee encounter of the tournament and it's one worthy of being a final. Serena leads the head-to-head 6-3, but they haven't played each other on clay since their infamous clash in Paris in 2003 when Justine raised her hand to stop play late in the third set and then didn't own up to doing it when it became controversial. Her lack of sportsmanship aside, Henin is probably the best player on clay at the moment and she's been moving around the court beautifully in this tournament. She's advanced to this point without dropping a set.

Serena's fitness hasn't been an issue yet in Paris, but this might be the match where it becomes one. She was a little shaky in her opening match against Tsvetana Pironkova, but has started to improve with each match. That's reminiscent of her performance at the Australian Open in January where she played herself into form resulting in a crushing defeat of Maria Sharapova in the final.

Pick: Henin – Justine takes the match in 3 tough sets.

Jelena Jankovic (4) vs. Nicole Vaidisova (6)
Jelena Jankovic came to Paris as one of the hottest players on the WTA tour and she hasn't disappointed her fans at Roland Garros. Aside from a difficult match with Venus Williams, she's rolled into the quarterfinals playing her best tennis. Can she reach her second career Grand Slam semifinal?

On the other side of the net, Nicole Vaidisova was forced to withdraw from her last 3 events with a wrist injury and hasn't had much competitive play on clay this spring. Regardless, she has also moved into the quarters without much resistance and now looks to reach her second Grand Slam semifinal of 2007. Jankovic has won two of their last three encounters with all of them going 3 sets.

Pick: Jankovic wins in 3 sets to set up a rematch of her US Open semifinal versus Justine Henin.

Ana Ivanovic (7) vs. Svetalana Kuznetsova (3)
These two ladies just played each other a few weeks ago in the final at Berlin with Ivanovic winning in 3 sets. What that result doesn't tell you is that it was Kuznetsova's second match of the day after she had beaten Justine Henin earlier in a 3 set battle. In the final, Kuznetsova claimed that she was mentally drained from her victory over Henin and wasn't able to compete the way she wanted to.

Both players have moved to this point in the tournament with relative ease, although Ivanovic struggled a bit on Sunday against Anabel Medina Garrigues. She'll have to improve on that performance in order to beat the Russian.

Pick: Kuznetsova continues her fine form in Paris and wins in straight sets.

Anna Chakvetadze (9) vs. Maria Sharapova (2)
A rematch of their Australian Open quarterfinal is on the docket for these two 20 year-old Russians. Maria Sharapova has never lost to Chakvetadze (3-0) and that includes a win at Roland Garros in 2005. Of course, Chakvetadze is a much improved player since 2005 so that result may not be particularly significant in evaluating this match.

What is significant is that both players have come to Roland Garros with shoulder issues hampering their preparation. On Sunday, each player was pushed to three sets and Sharapova managed to survive two match points against her. As is often the case in Maria's matches, her mental toughness pulled her through.

Pick: Sharapova has the mental edge on Chakvetadze and wins in 2 close sets.

Semifinals
Henin (1) vs. Jankovic (4)
These two ladies have already played each other three times in 2007 as well as a semifinal clash in the 2006 US Open. Unfortunately for Jankovic, she's lost all of those matches and has an 0-5 record against the diminutive Belgian. Jankovic has come close to victory in the five previous encounters, but she hasn't been able to solve the Henin puzzle. Will Paris be different?

Pick: Henin continues her mastery over Jankovic in another 3 set battle and reaches her fifth consecutive Grand Slam final.

Kuznetsova (3) vs. Sharapova (2)
This semifinal looks to be another all-Russian affair for Maria Sharapova, but in this match up, she doesn't have the advantage in the head-to-head as their record stands at 3-3. They have never played each other on clay and this will be their first meeting of 2007 so this match is a difficult one to predict. Sharapova will bring an aggressive game and her mental strength to the court. The question will be whether Kuznetsova can handle the moment well enough to defeat one of the toughest competitors on the women's tour.

Pick: Kuznetsova's clay court form propels her into the final in 3 tough sets, and gives her a chance to avenge her defeat in last year's French Open final versus Justine Henin.

Final
Henin (1) vs. Kuznetsova (3)
A few weeks ago in Berlin, Kuznetsova managed to squeeze out a three set victory over Henin in the semifinals of the Berlin Open before losing the final to Ana Invanovic. That was only the Russian's second victory versus Henin in 16 tries. Those numbers don't tell a compelling story for the Russian's chances in this match especially since two of her losses versus Henin have occurred at Roland Garros.

For Justine, a victory in Paris would be her third consecutive French Open crown and would cement her reputation as the tour's top clay court player.

Pick: Henin does it again with a straight sets victory over her Russian foe.

What are your predictions for the rest of the tournament?

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