Monday, June 04, 2007

Men's Quartefinal Preview

After Monday's matches at Roland Garros, the men have reached the quarterfinal round of the French Open. Let's take a look at the match-ups from the quarters through the final on Sunday.

Roger Federer (1) vs. Tommy Robredo (9)
While Tommy Robredo is certainly an accomplished clay court player, he's had very little luck with Roger Federer on the surface. His career record versus the Swiss Master stands at 0-7 with two of those losses coming on clay. Federer hasn't dropped a set to Robredo since 2002. Robredo simply doesn't have the game to hurt Federer on any surface and that includes clay.

Pick: Federer cruises comfortably in straight sets.

Nikolay Davydenko (4) vs. Guillermo Cañas (19)
This match has the potential to be the longest match played at the French Open this year. Both players are veritable backboards and are each in supreme shape. The two have not played since Cañas has returned to the tour from his drug suspension, but prior to that the Argentine held a 3-1 advantage in their matches played. Their only match on clay was in 2004 and Cañas won that in 3 sets.

To this point in the tournament, both players have looked solid in their performances and each man has lost only one set. The difference may come down to patience and which player is willing to wait out the other.

Pick: Cañas runs his tail off in this match and wins in 4 grueling sets.

Novak Djokovic (6) vs. Igor Andreev
These two men met in the first round at Estoril in late April in their only encounter to date, and Djokovic emerged victorious in a 3rd set tiebreak. This match figures to be as close as that one. Andreev has been hot in Paris from the start with a victory over third seeded Andy Roddick in the first round, followed up by victories over Nicolas Massu, Paul-Henri Mathieu and the 16th seed Marcos Baghdatis. The 23 year-old Russian seems to have found his dominating forehand in time for a deep run at Roland Garros, but will it be enough to conquer one of the rising stars on the men's tour?

2007 could be Novak Djokovic's breakout year. He won his first ATP Master Series title in Miami and was a finalist in Indian Wells. He also captured the championship at Estoril on clay. However, his path to the quarterfinals has not been entirely smooth. He was fortunate to escape his third round match with France's Olivier Patience – a match he eventually won in 5 sets. At times, the 20 year-old Serb hasn't looked comfortable moving on the dry clay and that could be his downfall versus Andreev, as the Russian will look to use his forehand to maneuver his opponent around the court.

Pick: Andreev in 5 sets.

Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Carlos Moya (23)
There are probably no two players on tour who know each other as well as these men from Mallorca. That makes this a dangerous match for tournament favorite Rafael Nadal as good friend Carlos Moya knows his game as well as his own. Nadal holds a 3-2 edge over Moya in matches with Rafa winning their last meeting in Rome in 2006. Each of their last three matches has gone the distance, so when they play, the matches are tight.

Both players have had relatively easy paths to this point in the tournament, so fatigue should not be a factor. That's especially important for the 31 year-old Moya who has to figure out a way to compete physically with a man 10 years his junior. The key to the match will be who can control more points with his forehand. Neither man wants to hit too many backhands, although Nadal is stronger off that wing than his good buddy.

Pick: Nadal is able to use his forehand to his advantage and pick on the weaker backhand of Moya to win in 4 sets.

Semifinals
Federer vs. Cañas
Amazingly, Cañas has defeated Federer twice this year on hard courts. Can he repeat the feat on clay at Roland Garros? Well, he certainly has a shot if he can frustrate the world's number one player the way he did in Indian Wells and Miami. Cañas simply would not miss in those matches and that fact got into Federer's head. The Swiss Master started going for too much on his shots and making errors, and fell right into the trap that Cañas laid for him.

However, Federer appears to have righted the ship since those hard court events in the US. He's playing more patiently and not going for too much too early in the points. He'll need to stay extra focused in this match as he hasn't played anyone as steady as Cañas yet.

Pick: Federer avenges his earlier defeats to the Argentine with a straight sets victory.

Nadal vs. Andreev
Although most people would have expected Novak Djokovic to be facing Nadal in this match, we're sticking with Andreev. Like the Moya – Nadal match, this one will be another battle of the forehands. These two men met recently in Hamburg and Nadal won convincingly 6-4, 6-1. However, I think we all know that Andreev has a win over Nadal on clay as that was Nadal's last loss on the surface before Roger Federer defeated him in the final at Hamburg.

Both players come into this match playing their best, but I can't see Nadal dropping a best of five set match to the Russian.

Pick: Nadal wins in 3 close sets.

Final
Federer vs. Nadal
For the third time during this clay court season, we have a final with the top two players in the world as well as a repeat of the 2006 French Open Final. Much has been made of Federer's triumph over Nadal in Hamburg, but now it is time for the number one seed to prove that he can do it in Paris. Nadal has never lost a match at Roland Garros and the drier clay is much more to his liking than the heavy and wet conditions of Hamburg.

Federer's confidence against Nadal should be at an all-time high since he finally proved that he can beat the Spaniard on clay. On the other hand, Nadal should be fresher both physically and mentally than he was during their last encounter and will be ready to give it his all across 5 sets. As usual when these two meet, the key will be how Federer handles the high ball into his backhand wing. If he can get on top of it and drive it, he'll be in good position to dictate play. However, if he's forced to simply return his backhand into play, that may give Nadal the opening he needs to hit his inside-out forehand for multiple winners.

Pick: Nadal wins his third consecutive French Open title and remains undefeated at Roland Garros in five grueling sets.

Who are your picks to advance at Roland Garros?

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